Prediction 1. “Homeworking – a pendulum shift”
There is a real concern that once a semblance of normality returns, the coronavirus will not have completely disappeared and there is the potential for a “second wave” impact that may occur. There will also surely be a nervousness amongst employees and employers alike in returning to a pre-COVID-19 position, especially in large office buildings where high volumes of people exist in very close proximity to each other on densely occupied floorplates.
Therefore, there will likely be a short to medium term period of phasing staff back to work. This will require employers to assess and implement options such as de-densifying space to allow more space between desks and/or fewer workstations on a workbench and/or alternating shifts within teams to manage the number of staff in the office to ensure greater spacing.
In order to do this effectively, employers will need to undertake segmentation analysis and assess role criticality. In many cases, companies will have already done this to an extent through the current crisis in order to establish which business activities have to remain in the office, which can be performed at home and which can be temporarily paused. The longer-term application of this principle is likely to be used to both influence the phasing back period and also longer-term policies.
Companies and employees will also be learning a huge amount about the effectiveness of remote working for their business and the roles within the business. Clearly some roles are more able to be effectively undertaken remotely and some people are more pre-disposed than others to homeworking. Home environments, family/relationship contexts and social contact are all critical influencing factors. This “push and pull” effect will not be exclusively tended towards a continuation of remote working, however, and will undoubtedly result in far greater levels of remote working than pre-COVID-19.
If the pendulum moved from say 10% remote working pre-COVID-19 to say 90% during COVID-19, then the pendulum is likely to move in phases back the other way. But where will it settle?
My view is that Socrates will again prove to be accurate and relevant in saying “all things in moderation, including moderation” and that it is reasonable to expect an average of 40-50% remote working to become the long-term norm.
What I am sure about is that this re-balancing won’t be entirely organic and that there will be significant planning, change management, organisational and policy change required in order to optimise this balance and associated effectiveness within individual companies.
If the above materialises, then this will have a huge impact on corporate footprint requirements.